Capitulation: Obama And Russia – OpEd

Published Eurasia Review on 7 August 2013
By Lawrence S. Schneiderman 

“Russia’s Tiny Cold War” (Stratfor, August 6, 2013) is, as all of George Friedman’s work, a must read. Mr. Friedman succinctly posits:

Russia went through two phases in the Post-Cold War world. The first was the chaos that inevitably followed the collapse of the Soviet Union. The second phase was a reaction to the first.

The havoc of Yeltsin could not continue. Russia was sinking into extraordinary poverty, worse than the Soviet Union; there were regions that were seeking to break away from the Russian Federation; and it had little to no international standing.

The United States and NATO waged a war in Kosovo, completely indifferent to Russian opposition. Russia opposed the war both because Serbia was an ally and because one of the principles of Europe since World War II was that there would be no shifts in borders. This was regarded as sacred inasmuch as redrawing borders was one of the origins of the war. Russia's wishes were disregarded.

When Serbia did not collapse immediately under air attack and the war dragged out, the Russians were asked to negotiate its end. In return they were promised a significant role in managing post-war Kosovo. That didn't happen; the future of Kosovo became a matter for European and American decision-making.

Influence is not something given to a country. It has that influence because of its power, because the consequences of ignoring its wishes would have unacceptable consequences. By 1999, Russia had reached the low point of its influence.

It was logical that a man like Vladimir Putin would emerge. And, it was logical that Russia would reassert itself on the world stage, especially in the power vacuum created by the Obama Administration. From his first days in office, it was clear Mr. Obama meant to change America’s preeminence in world affairs. Examples are: going on tour to apologize to the World; relinquishing a European antimissile-system and get nothing in return; leading from behind in Libya; dismantling your country’s defense budget resulting in critical reductions in the nation’s defensive capability; and, obfuscating the severe damage done by the Wikileaks and the Snowden affair.

As Stanford Professor Josef Joffe recently opined in Monday’s The Wall Street Journal (August 5, 2013 A13, Col. 1-5), “Exploiting Obama’s Foreign Policy Retreat:”

“The world is being treated to a first in the history of great–power politics. Traditionally, the might of nations was hemmed in by others in an endless game of pressure and counter-pressure. Now, the reigning superpower is proposing to neutralize itself – no foes needed.”

It is the failures and cluelessness of American foreign policy under the Clinton, Bush, and Obama Administrations that have solidified the current situation. Two decades of incompetence has consequences. As Rev. Wright, Mr. Obama’s trusted mentor once proffered, “America’s chickens are coming home to roost.”

Mr. Friedman believes “there is no danger of a military confrontation (with Russia) now.”  However, the only creditable adversary to Russia in Eastern Europe isn’t there anymore.

In my view, there will be a military confrontation in the Balkans over Kosovo. And, this time Russia will not have to sit back and allow the West to dictate the terms of both the engagement and its aftermath. Furthermore, there is a strong likelihood that this may happen before Obama’s second term in office is over.

Mr. Putin and Russia understand Mr. Obama better than the American people. They know he is a phony, a poser, a weak sister, and lacks the Right Stuff. They know he has contempt and disdain for American Exceptionalism. They know the American people will not tolerate another war where their sons and daughters give their lives for nothing; and where the rules of engagement save enemy lives at the expense of American.

It is entirely possible the current rapprochement between Serbia and Kosovo, shepherded by the clueless Lady Ashton and the European Union elitists, is a ruse. Why would Serbia give up its raison d’état  (Kosovo) to be a doormat for a bankrupt Union that might crumble, and eventually dissolve, after the September election in Germany?

Kosovo is the sweet spot to create uncertainty in Eastern Europe and destabilize the region. The United States under Obama will cave in to any overt hostilities. If you can’t rescue your own people from a terrorist attack in a lawless terrorist state (Libya); then should anyone believe that you would come to the rescue of foreigners?

Indeed, is there a better place to start a war?

Lawrence S. Schneiderman is an International Consultant and Dr. of Public Policy, Vanderbilt University. The views expressed are the author’s own