Trump's Syrian Gambit

This analysis is not intended to be definitive. However, it is intended to analysis the current Turkish war against the Kurds in Syria, which has been induced by United States President Donald Trump’s decision to remove U.S. Special Forces (appox. 1,000 troops) from the Syrian border with Turkey, on October 7, 2019.

The United States has had in recent years two trustworthy and reliable friends in the Middle East, Israel and the Kurds. Therefore, it would seem inexplicable for the United States to abandon the Kurdish -- People’s Protection Units (YPG) militia in Syria. The YPG has been America’s partner and its ground force in the U.S. led campaign against IS in Syria. YPG forces are the only forces on the ground in Syria that is loyal to the U.S.

An astute observer of the Middle East, Caroline Glick posited in 2018 "In announcing the departure of U.S. forces, Trump essentially told the Kurds that they are on their own. Unless the U.S. agrees to arm and supply YPG forces, and unless the U.S. intends to use other means to deter Erdogan from attacking them, Syria’s Kurds will face the unenviable choice between facing the Turks alone or throwing their hats in with the Russians and Iranians in the hopes of receiving some sort of protection from the Turks."

The hell with Turkey! They have had every opportunity for partnership and constructive intervention in the region and have never failed to miss an opportunity. It’s long over due for Turkey to support its NATO partner(s). For nearly twenty years, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s (Erdogan) Turkey has distinguished itself as a strategic threat to America’s core interests and policies and those of its closest allies in the Middle East. No matter what they wish to think -- Kurds are not Turks. And, the Kurds are not a direct threat to Turkey’s national security.

The loathsome reality is that Turkey wants to eliminate another minority. Between 1915 through 1923, the Turkish Ottoman government systematically exterminated 1.5 million Turkish Armenian citizens. By any definition of the facts, it was genocidal.

Logically, petitio principii, why would Trump take this action? Or in the parlance of the day that begs the question. In either case why did he do it, and why now?

Trump it is posited understood that he failed and missed an opportunity to retaliate against Iran after its military attack on one of Saudi Arabia’s major oil installation. The sine qua non of US foreign policy for the last 70 years has been the protection of Saudi oil installations and maintaining the safety of maritime routes in and around the Persian Gulf. In the percipient words of a former U.S. President, “this will not stand” (George H. W. Bush, 1990).

Here now is the gambit. Trump has an “understanding” with Erdogan to fully utilize U.S. military assets in Turkey, i.e. Incirlik Air Force Base, for an attack on Iran. This is critical to reestablish US credibility and power in the region that has been deteriorating for lack of a response to Iranian belligerence both overtly (seizure of ships in Persian Gulf and other hostile acts), and covertly (continued development of its nuclear arms program and ballistic missile program).

Yet indeed, there are pitfalls. At the end of the day, can Erdogan be trusted? Turkey will not engage Iran militarily, and Erdogan has been known to renege on a promise and commitment. Additionally, Turkey may be happy to see the Kurds dispersed from its Syrian border, but if Syrian forces (including Russian) – and, by extension, Iran itself – gain a foothold on Turkey’s doorstep, it’s a bit of a pyrrhic victory. Finally, unless Iran is seriously deteriorated, this policy gambit leaves Iran and Russia calling the shots in Syria, and the Middle East.

"What the hell's going on out there?"