written April 13, 2014
Here’s
the headline being reported in newspapers around the world:
Ukraine is at War with
Russia. Fighting broke out today (April 13, 2014) in Sloviansk, Eastern
Ukraine.
First
reports put one Ukrainian Special Forces soldier killed and five wounded.
Apparently, the Kiev Government planned the assault to evict Russian
Separatists from a Ukrainian police station they had taken over yesterday
(April 12, 2014).
Now,
let me tell you what's really going on here:
It's
the equivalent of the Packers’ sweep.
For non-football fans, this is a play in American football. The Green Bay
Packers, under their eminent and legendary coach Vince Lombardi, ran it, and
ran it, and ran it again, until someone stopped them.
What's
occurring in Eastern Ukraine is the same play the Russians ran in Georgia 2008 (South
Ossetia and Abkhazia), and the Crimea 2014. And, like the 1960s Packers, they
will keep on running it, until someone stops them.
The
Russian play is from the United States and NATO playbook, which they ran in
Kosovo, with the help of the Kosovo Liberation Army (“KLA”). Instead
of the Packers’ sweep, let’s call
this play the Kosovo Exception,
developed by Bill Clinton and Madeleine Albright.
The
Kosovo Exception had its origin in Czechoslovakia (Sudetenland) when
Hitler ran it in the run up to the Second World War. It should not be forgotten
that Mrs. Clinton recently chastised Mr. Putin for behaving like Hitler when
Russia invaded the Crimea. By Mrs. Clinton’s logic it follows that her husband
also behaved like Hitler, when he went to war in Kosovo in March 1999,
employing the same pretext.
Here’s how it works:
First you need a minority within
a State who believes they are being persecuted. Toleration of the minority differences,
by the State, is not enough. They want “group-differentiated rights,” thereby
requiring exception from laws of the State e.g. religious beliefs, language
accommodation in schools, voting, et al. In sum, they want self-determination,
i.e. nationalism. They want their own laws, and do not want to be ruled by the
laws of the State in which they reside.
Not getting all that they
believe they have a right to, they rebel. A rebellion with acts of civil
disobedience, vandalism, subversion, armed resistance (aka freedom fighters),
and terrorism. In a viable state, these measures are swiftly put down, and the
tumult ends. But for a weak and dysfunctional State, herein lies the seeds of
insurrection.
Second, a strong benefactor is
required, ethnic affiliation is useful but not a prerequisite. For Kosovo it
was the US and NATO. For Georgia, Crimea, and the Eastern Ukraine it is Russia.
Third, engineer and trump up
some demonstration: a sit-in in the President’s office, a take over of a
government building(s), a dramatically staged catastrophe, thereby forcing the
State to act against your sedition. Then proceed to lie, obfuscate, intimidate,
and malign. All the while a complicit mainstream media reports and editorializes
the validity of your scam. This sets the stage for your benefactor, like a
knight in shining armor, to take action on your behalf. Hence, the benefactor virtuously
comes to the rescue and liberates the downtrodden minority within the State.
One, two, three – Bob’s your uncle.
Make no
mistake, today Europe is a weakling, and Barack Obama cannot, and will not act.
Today, the West is not dealing with a Boris Yeltsin. And
today, unlike Kosovo, Russia will not sit back and allow the West to
dictate both the terms of the engagement and its aftermath.
Lawrence
S. Schneiderman is an International Consultant and Dr. of Public Policy,
Vanderbilt University. The views expressed are the author’s own.
